Saturday, November 16, 2019


This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Beijing, China. The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, therefore I believe that it’s a good week to concentrate more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entrance that pays $10K into 1st place. That is the best you to chase in my view. I will have a few LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win them all, but I won’t have many LUs in complete this week. Aside from that, most of my play with this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. That said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best play on the card that weekend and there are 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I think this is a fight the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home country. I think in championships, Yadong will be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced over him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I think you can create a case to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in money games we do not care about ownership. I believe that this is a great spot to lock at a triumph and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins which we are able to afford. More frequently than not 4 wins gets the job done in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card at -400. There is also value on Hu Yaozong with him $600 cheaper and the betting line being nearly even. Normally when there is worth like that on an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I really don’t think either of those men are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter at GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a fight which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If both of those guys get an early finish they will likely be on the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter will be the lower owned man of the two and that’s what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog play of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really are not many underdogs I like to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved producing lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think almost every favorite will find a win. I think that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a clear path to victory and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the ability to be able to KO anybody on Earth. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends up on the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first battle between both of these men Blaydes managed to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up pretty fast each time. If he is able to get up like that here, then I really don’t see any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to try and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is your scarier man on the toes and I really don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for long amounts of time. I think Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a cardI really don’t like many underdogs I think he is the best you to aim with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t enjoy targeting any of these women in the 9k selection. I believe that they should all get wins, but I do not see any of them becoming 10x their salary. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I think she has to receive a finish to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA record and only 1 of those wins did not go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anyone a tournament. I also believe Zhang and Xiaonan have better odds of winning than Mueller does this that’s the reason why I picked her over both as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a lot of lineups this week but if I was making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on among them.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each fight, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my pick prediction for every single fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:

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